Global Carbon Project Report 2010 Short Critique

The Latest Carbon budget was released yesterday and it makes for interesting reading. The primary peer-reviewed source for this year’s budget is:
Friedlingstein et al. (2010) Update on CO2 emissions.Nature Geoscience, doi: 10.1038/ngeo_1022. Published online: 21 November 2010.

It states that the growth rate of world wide CO2 is down to 1.6ppm in 2009. the average from 2000-2008 was 1.9ppm it then adds that the accumulation of co2 in the atmosphere is the most accurate Statistic In the Carbon budgets arsenal with an accuracy of about 96% That's a pretty big claim in this author opinion. With a fall of just .3ppm it begs the question is this statistically significant considering the highly disputable accuracy of such measurements.

It also goes on to say that CO2 emissions from fossil fuels decreased by 1.3% in 2009 and that about 92% of the increase in emissions from 2007-2009 was a result of increased coal use in China and India. Quite a specific figure 92% considering that a few sentences later it states that the accuracy of Global CO2 measurements is about 6% plus/minus and for individual nations can be several fold larger. So let's take that figure 6% and make it several fold bigger and up it to 42%. We could add it to the supposed 92% that they claim China and India are responsible for but that would mean that they were responsible for 134% of CO2 emissions 2007-2009 but of course that's not possible if we take it off then China and India would be responsible for only 50% a lot less headline grabbing a figure I'm sure you'll agree. Considering that the poorest nations in the world are only responsible for 1% of total CO2 emissions since 1751 I believe that 50% is easily a palatable figure when taking into account the necessary development that is saving countless lives in these disadvantaged countries.

The report also points out that a large proportion of CO2 from these developing countries is produced on making goods that end up in the developed world and I commend it for pointing that out all though I question the motives.

Finally the report states that Natural land and Ocean processes remove 57% of all CO2 emissions caused by human activity and according to the reports own admitted error margins this could in theory offset the entire emission produced by China and India. When you take into account that 97% of Carbon Dioxide in the atmosphere comes from the Oceans and Plants It makes you wonder that in the time of this deep recession maybe the probable millions spent on this report, that by its own claims is so statistically unreliable would have been better spent elsewhere, something I believe we all need to think about and address.

Report Contributors,

Contributors

Karen Assmann

University of Bergen, Norway

Thomas A. Boden

Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee USA

Gordon Bonan

National Centre for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA

Laurent Bopp
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, UMR, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, France

Erik Buitenhuis

School of Environment Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK

Ken Caldeira

Depart. of Global Ecology, Carnegie Institution of Washington, Stanford, USA

Josep G. Canadell
Global Carbon Project, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Canberra, Australia

Philippe Ciais
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, UMR  CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, France

Thomas J. Conway
NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado, USA

Stephen Davis

Depart. of Global Ecology, Carnegie Institution of Washington, Stanford, USA

Scott C. Doney
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts, USA
Richard A. Feely
Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, Seattle, Washington, USA

Pru Foster
QUEST, Department of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, UK

Pierre Friedlingstein
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, France
QUEST, Department of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, UK
Joe L. Hackler

Woods Hole Research Center, Falmouth, Massachusetts, USA

Christoph Heinze

University of Bergen, Norway

Richard A. Houghton
Woods Hole Research Center, Falmouth, Massachusetts, USA

Chris Huntingford
Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Benson Lane, Wallingford, UK

Peter E. Levy

Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Bush Estate, Penicuik, UK

Sam Levis

National Centre for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Co, USA

Mark R. Lomas

Department of Animal and Plant Sciences, University of Sheffield, U

Joseph MajkutAOS Program, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey, USA
Nicolas Metzl        
LOCEAN-IPSL, CNRS, Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, Université Pierre et Marie Curie, Paris, France

Corinne Le Quéré
School of Environment Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK
British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, UK

Andrew Lenton

CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Tasmania, Australia

Ivan Lima

Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts, USA

Gregg Marland
Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, USA
Glen P. Peters
Center for International Climate and Environmental Research, Oslo, Norway
Michael R. Raupach
Global Carbon Project, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Canberra, Australia

Stephen Sitch
School of Geography, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK