2013 the risk from solar flares

Solar Cycle 24 a possible scenario

The Day is 22 may 2013


At 04:13 a massive Coronal Mass Ejection is observed by NASA's ACE space probe with such intensity and ferocity that it knocks out its functioning ability. Less than 15 minutes later before dawn breaks across much of the northern hemisphere brilliant pulsating auroras of red purple and green illuminate the sky’s world wide awaking many people from their nights sleep and astounding them with its beauty. Seconds later a a fireball carrying a 15 billion-tonnes of magnetically supercharged plasma smashes into the earth at over 1 million miles an hour.


Light-bulbs burn brilliantly world wide before exploding, plug sockets burst into flames and TV's explode. Several tonne electricity transformers are shot hundreds of feet into the air unable to cope with the massive incursion of electric currents along power lines as the gigantic plasma storm plays havoc with the earth’s magnetic field. Raging fires break out in cities and homes world wide. Sky Scrapers and tower blocks burn uncontrollably. Their sprinkler systems made useless as electricity supplies fail that are critical for pumping water. Instantly many things that we take for granted are paralysed. Sewage treatment plants and refrigeration would be knocked out instantly meaning toilets would no longer flush and perishable food would begin to rot. Water supplies in normal homes would run out in less than a day meaning no more drinking water. Supermarket shelves would empty quickly leading to mass starvation. Without electricity fuel could not be pumped from petrol station reservoirs. Transport systems that rely on power supply would be brought to their knees. Financial institutions would collapse with no computers running them. The internet would seize to exist.

Essential services such as hospitals would last two or three days at the most. Once the fuel for the generators had been used they would come grinding to a halt losing their functional use. Staff panic stricken would flee home to their families leaving the sick to fend for themselves. Prisons would no doubt riot those that could not escape would in all probability be left to starve or die from thirst. Riots and Looting would quickly ensue as people fight over food resources. In a matter of weeks Famine ad Starvation would materialise. The world would be thrown back into the dark ages within a matter of months with millions dead or dying, as disease and illness took hold. Without a ready supply and access to modern medicine manageable afflictions such as diabetes could wipe out millions by the day.


Is this just scare mongering? Well the honest answer is yes. Could this happen? Well the honest answer is yet again yes. The fact remains that our reliance on technology puts us at risk to just such an event. If Solar cycle 24 comes with the same intensity as the Carrington Event of 1859 then we could see many of the above scenarios happening. We know very little about the sun and although unprecedented in recorded history there may come a time when such solar activity could last for weeks on end making it almost impossible to guard against( The Carrington event has been recorded at lasting 8 days). We should have some warning against a singular event enabling us to turn off and protect certain infrastructure. It takes about three days for a solar storm to reach the earth from conception. Although worryingly this is not the warning period we will get.

We currently rely on ACE, NASA's Advanced Composition Explorer. It is constantly in orbit between earth and the Sun but where it is placed would only give us between 15-45 minutes warning of any upcoming event(It takes at least 15minutes for the power companies to prepare any protection against any such event). The problem is that this probe is eleven years old, longer than its predicted operational lifespan and its instrumentation is becoming less reliable by the day. There are currently no plans for a replacement. To compound this worry The Carrington Event was observed to have taken less than fifteen minutes to reach earth from where ACE is currently in Orbit. Our other space based instrumentation such as the probe SOHO while en-valuable are said to offer very little by way of early warning capability. Mike Hapgood, who chairs the European Space Agency's space weather team said talking about the loss of ACE "We will largely lose the early warning capability."

John Kappenman, a power industry analyst with the Metatech Corporation of Goleta, California, and an advisor to the NASA committee that produced there recent report on just such an event reckons. "It could conceivably be the worst natural disaster possible,"


If these distinguished experts are worried and our governments do not heed these warnings it is not inconceivable that the dark ages could be coming to a neighbourhood near you. You have been warned.